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Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Bus Rapid Transit Frequency in Tanzania

Received: 14 September 2023     Accepted: 9 October 2023     Published: 28 October 2023
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Abstract

Mathematical model on a single line was presented based on four equations; operation cost, passenger cost, total cost and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) service frequency. The analysis of the model shows that the increase of BRT services frequency tends to increase total passenger demand which lead to decrease operational cost and passenger cost in terms of waiting time. In numerical simulation, it is observed that the increase of passenger demand (p), tends to increase the frequency of BRT. But absence of Passenger demand (p) reduce the BRT frequency which leads to increase operational cost; for example, paying salary for BRT staff, bus services and other cost like office expenses. Furthermore, passenger demand depends on other parameters like the decrease of value of initial bus cost BC0, waiting time Wt, average getting on and ending time per passenger Goe, proportion between average waiting period and the service a1, hurrying and slowing down at stops and at the junction plus passenger getting on and descending from the bus hs, increase the value of in-bus time serving Bts, and proportion of average trip length to the total rout length a2. The specific cases of BRT operation and passenger behaviour can be analysed for their effect on the value of a1. On the other hand, if movements are large and a timetable of bus plan is published, then passengers change their behaviour and arrive at bus stops a few minutes before the planned bus arrival. This indicates that there is much work to be done for BRT management. BRT management requires organisational efforts, deliberate planning, fund from the public, and coordination between of passengers and staff members.

Published in International Journal of Transportation Engineering and Technology (Volume 9, Issue 4)
DOI 10.11648/j.ijtet.20230904.12
Page(s) 79-85
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Passenger Demand, Operation Cost, Passenger Cost, BRT Frequency, BRT

References
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  • APA Style

    Laurencia Ndelamo Massawe, Oluwole Daniel Makinde. (2023). Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Bus Rapid Transit Frequency in Tanzania . International Journal of Transportation Engineering and Technology, 9(4), 79-85. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijtet.20230904.12

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    ACS Style

    Laurencia Ndelamo Massawe; Oluwole Daniel Makinde. Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Bus Rapid Transit Frequency in Tanzania . Int. J. Transp. Eng. Technol. 2023, 9(4), 79-85. doi: 10.11648/j.ijtet.20230904.12

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    AMA Style

    Laurencia Ndelamo Massawe, Oluwole Daniel Makinde. Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Bus Rapid Transit Frequency in Tanzania . Int J Transp Eng Technol. 2023;9(4):79-85. doi: 10.11648/j.ijtet.20230904.12

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ijtet.20230904.12,
      author = {Laurencia Ndelamo Massawe and Oluwole Daniel Makinde},
      title = {Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Bus Rapid Transit Frequency in Tanzania
    
    	
    },
      journal = {International Journal of Transportation Engineering and Technology},
      volume = {9},
      number = {4},
      pages = {79-85},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijtet.20230904.12},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijtet.20230904.12},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijtet.20230904.12},
      abstract = {Mathematical model on a single line was presented based on four equations; operation cost, passenger cost, total cost and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) service frequency. The analysis of the model shows that the increase of BRT services frequency tends to increase total passenger demand which lead to decrease operational cost and passenger cost in terms of waiting time. In numerical simulation, it is observed that the increase of passenger demand (p), tends to increase the frequency of BRT. But absence of Passenger demand (p) reduce the BRT frequency which leads to increase operational cost; for example, paying salary for BRT staff, bus services and other cost like office expenses. Furthermore, passenger demand depends on other parameters like the decrease of value of initial bus cost BC0, waiting time Wt, average getting on and ending time per passenger Goe, proportion between average waiting period and the service a1, hurrying and slowing down at stops and at the junction plus passenger getting on and descending from the bus hs, increase the value of in-bus time serving Bts, and proportion of average trip length to the total rout length a2. The specific cases of BRT operation and passenger behaviour can be analysed for their effect on the value of a1. On the other hand, if movements are large and a timetable of bus plan is published, then passengers change their behaviour and arrive at bus stops a few minutes before the planned bus arrival. This indicates that there is much work to be done for BRT management. BRT management requires organisational efforts, deliberate planning, fund from the public, and coordination between of passengers and staff members.
    },
     year = {2023}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis of Bus Rapid Transit Frequency in Tanzania
    
    	
    
    AU  - Laurencia Ndelamo Massawe
    AU  - Oluwole Daniel Makinde
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    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijtet.20230904.12
    T2  - International Journal of Transportation Engineering and Technology
    JF  - International Journal of Transportation Engineering and Technology
    JO  - International Journal of Transportation Engineering and Technology
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    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2575-1751
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijtet.20230904.12
    AB  - Mathematical model on a single line was presented based on four equations; operation cost, passenger cost, total cost and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) service frequency. The analysis of the model shows that the increase of BRT services frequency tends to increase total passenger demand which lead to decrease operational cost and passenger cost in terms of waiting time. In numerical simulation, it is observed that the increase of passenger demand (p), tends to increase the frequency of BRT. But absence of Passenger demand (p) reduce the BRT frequency which leads to increase operational cost; for example, paying salary for BRT staff, bus services and other cost like office expenses. Furthermore, passenger demand depends on other parameters like the decrease of value of initial bus cost BC0, waiting time Wt, average getting on and ending time per passenger Goe, proportion between average waiting period and the service a1, hurrying and slowing down at stops and at the junction plus passenger getting on and descending from the bus hs, increase the value of in-bus time serving Bts, and proportion of average trip length to the total rout length a2. The specific cases of BRT operation and passenger behaviour can be analysed for their effect on the value of a1. On the other hand, if movements are large and a timetable of bus plan is published, then passengers change their behaviour and arrive at bus stops a few minutes before the planned bus arrival. This indicates that there is much work to be done for BRT management. BRT management requires organisational efforts, deliberate planning, fund from the public, and coordination between of passengers and staff members.
    
    VL  - 9
    IS  - 4
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Faculty of Informatics and Technical Education, National Institute of Transport, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

  • Faculty of Military Science, Stellenbosch University, Saldanha, South Africa

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